Pakistan’s agricultural story is one of early promise, prolonged neglect, and an increasingly stark warning for the nation’s future. At independence, agriculture was the backbone of the economy, and in the 1960s, the Green Revolution transformed Pakistan into a food-secure nation. High-yield wheat and rice varieties, new canals, dams, and widespread tube wells produced spectacular results: wheat output rose by 91 per cent, rice by 141 per cent, and for nearly three decades, Pakistan faced no food shortage. But the momentum faded. As investments slowed and policies stagnated, the sector that once guaranteed national survival gradually weakened, quietly eroding the foundations of the nation’s food security.
Today, agriculture still employs nearly 40 per cent of the workforce and indirectly supports more than half the population, yet contributes only 24 per cent to GDP. That imbalance reflects more than inefficiency; it signals a sector deteriorating at the very moment the country needs it most. Water scarcity has become a severe threat, with Pakistan ranked among the world’s highest-risk countries. Outdated flood irrigation, shrinking groundwater tables, and poor water governance have turned an agricultural challenge into a looming crisis. Soil degradation, affecting almost 20 million hectares, further constrains the country’s ability to sustainably grow enough food for a rapidly expanding population.
The economics of farming have created another layer of vulnerability. A weakening rupee has made imported fertilisers, pesticides, and machinery increasingly unaffordable. High electricity and fuel costs have made irrigation, once a key driver of the Green Revolution, prohibitively expensive for many. Small farmers, who make up 90 per cent of agricultural households, often cannot access formal credit and resort to low-quality inputs. These structural limitations directly translate into lower yields, weaker supply chains, and rising dependence on imported food staples.
Investing in agriculture is no longer a matter of economic planning; it is a matter of national security. A nation that cannot feed itself cannot sustain growth, stability, or sovereignty.
Post-harvest losses represent yet another quiet but devastating threat. Between 20 per cent and 40 per cent of fruits and vegetables never make it to market due to poor storage, lack of cold chains, and weak logistics. These losses undermine farmer incomes and shrink domestic food availability. With Pakistan’s population continuing to grow, such wastage is not merely a logistical issue; it is a critical concern.
Climate change has magnified these pressures. Scientific projections warn that Pakistan’s agricultural productivity could decline by up to 10 per cent by 2040. The devastating floods of 2025 provided a stark preview: over 2.5 million acres of crops destroyed, including 60 per cent of the rice crop, and more than a billion dollars in losses. Livestock deaths and damaged rural infrastructure deepened distress, highlighting a future in which the nation may struggle to feed itself unless urgent, strategic investments are made.
Over the past few years, the government has begun taking steps to address some of these vulnerabilities. In 2018, the PML-N government launched Pakistan’s first National Food Security Policy, followed by the establishment of a National Food Security Council, chaired by the prime minister, to improve coordination across provinces. In 2025, the Federal Committee on Agriculture set national production targets for the 2025–26 season, reflecting a more data-driven and climate-aware approach to food planning.
In 2024–25, the government also updated critical regulatory frameworks: a new National Seed Policy and Biotechnology Policy were initiated to improve seed quality and advance research, while a Bio-Pesticide Regulatory Framework, rolled out in 2024, promoted safer pest management. At the provincial level, digital subsidy systems such as the Kissan Card (expanded in 2025) have eased small farmers’ access to inputs through targeted financial support. Collaboration with international partners has also increased: in 2025, the government worked with the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) to assess and strengthen Pakistan’s food control system, acknowledging that food security depends not just on crop production but on food safety and nutritional quality.
These initiatives mark a growing recognition that food security should be a national priority. Yet the scale of the crisis far exceeds the pace of reform. Policies exist, but implementation remains inconsistent. Provincial coordination — the backbone of agricultural delivery — still lags. Research institutions remain underfunded, and the country has yet to build the storage facilities, cold chains, and value-addition infrastructure required to stabilise food availability year-round. For a nation facing climate extremes, water stress, and rapid population growth, these measures, while encouraging, are not yet commensurate with the urgency of the threat.
Missed opportunities in allied sectors — livestock, fisheries, and meat processing — have further weakened Pakistan’s food system. Livestock should be a natural strength for one of the world’s top milk-producing countries, but with 92 per cent of the market informal, the absence of value addition limits both domestic nutrition and export potential. Fisheries contribute just 0.4 per cent to GDP despite ample coastline and inland water bodies, and modern aquaculture has yet to take off. Diversified food systems globally act as buffers in times of climate stress, but Pakistan’s underdeveloped allied sectors leave the country dangerously exposed.
For Pakistan, the path forward must place food security at the centre of agricultural reform. Investments in research, climate-resilient seeds, and modern extension services are essential for ensuring stable food supplies.
International examples show what is possible when agriculture is treated as a strategic priority. The Netherlands, despite its tiny size, exports more than €65 billion in agricultural products annually due to its investment in research, greenhouse technology, precision farming, and farmer-centric policies. India’s recent agricultural tax reforms, such as reducing GST on tractors, irrigation equipment, micronutrients, and dairy products, show how policy can lower production costs and stabilise food supplies. The contrast is clear: countries that invest consistently in agriculture strengthen their food security; those that neglect it face recurring shortages and rising import dependence.
For Pakistan, the path forward must place food security at the centre of agricultural reform. Investments in research, climate-resilient seeds, and modern extension services are essential for ensuring stable food supplies. Better water management through precision irrigation, satellite monitoring, and improved infrastructure can curb losses and protect the country from future droughts. Strengthening storage and cold chains will reduce post-harvest losses and improve year-round availability of perishable foods. Expanding agro-processing and value addition will enhance both rural incomes and the national food basket.
There is also a social dimension to food security that Pakistan has long overlooked. Women make up 72 per cent of the rural workforce, yet remain largely unpaid and unsupported. Their empowerment through training, credit access, and entrepreneurship can significantly improve household nutrition and agricultural productivity. Rural youth, increasingly drawn away from farming, can be engaged through agri-tech programmes, greenhouse models, and skill-development initiatives under PMYP and provincial training bodies. Retaining the next generation in agriculture is vital for ensuring future food availability.
Ultimately, Pakistan’s agricultural sector is more than an economic variable; it is the nation’s first and last line of defence against hunger. The warning signs are already visible in rising food imports, volatile domestic markets, climate-induced crop losses, and declining productivity. A country of Pakistan’s size and agrarian heritage should not be vulnerable to food shortages. Yet without decisive investment, coherent policy, and a shift toward climate-smart farming, that is precisely the direction in which the nation is heading.
Investing in agriculture is no longer a matter of economic planning; it is a matter of national security. A nation that cannot feed itself cannot sustain growth, stability, or sovereignty. Pakistan’s future depends on whether it chooses to rebuild its agricultural strength today or continue delaying reforms until the cost becomes unbearable. The potential is immense, but so are the risks of inaction. The next decade will determine whether Pakistan secures food for its people — or slips deeper into a cycle of vulnerability from which recovery will be far more difficult.
The writer is a SUN (Scaling Up Nutrition) UN Global Champion and a dairy value chain professional.
